Landcruiser 2024( LC250) transmission , gearbox issues

[katekebo]

Now that we are on the subject of reliability...
One of the best methodologies to compare reliability was developed by two automotive engineers as the subject of their master thesis. Later they founded https://www.dashboard-light.com/. Unlike JDPower and Consumer Reports, which focus mostly on new cars, dashboard-light.com methodology looks at data from vehicles with over 100k miles. A downside of their methodology is that does give much insight into recent model vehicle (3-4 years old and newer). Also, dashboard-light.com only analyzes power train failures, and does not report issues such A/C or electronic problems that don't affect power train.

One key measure of reliability is probability of a power train failure during per 100k miles. Here are the numbers:
Toyota RAV4 (generally regarded as reliable): 13.8%
Jeep Wrangler: 11.3%
Toyota Land Cruiser: 11.3%
Toyota FJ Cruiser (the most reliable vehicle on dashboard-light.com): 6.5%
Ford F-series: 18.7%
Chevrolet Silverado: 13.5%

Two things stand our from dashboard-light.com analysis:
1) A lot of the reputatiom of reliable vs. unreliable brands and models is based on perception, not hard numbers
2) In terms of probability of failure during typical vehicle lifespan, the difference between "reliable" and "unreliable" isn't very big.

 

[Markarian421]

The jolt slowing down to a stop is normal. It’s believed that is the switch to and from regen braking.
My lower gears are kinda funky at times.

My 2025 has never done that.

 

[TakaraLC]

Now that we are on the subject of reliability...
One of the best methodologies to compare reliability was developed by two automotive engineers as the subject of their master thesis. Later they founded https://www.dashboard-light.com/. Unlike JDPower and Consumer Reports, which focus mostly on new cars, dashboard-light.com methodology looks at data from vehicles with over 100k miles. A downside of their methodology is that does give much insight into recent model vehicle (3-4 years old and newer). Also, dashboard-light.com only analyzes power train failures, and does not report issues such A/C or electronic problems that don't affect power train.

One key measure of reliability is probability of a power train failure during per 100k miles. Here are the numbers:
Toyota RAV4 (generally regarded as reliable): 13.8%
Jeep Wrangler: 11.3%
Toyota Land Cruiser: 11.3%
Toyota FJ Cruiser (the most reliable vehicle on dashboard-light.com): 6.5%
Ford F-series: 18.7%
Chevrolet Silverado: 13.5%

Two things stand our from dashboard-light.com analysis:
1) A lot of the reputatiom of reliable vs. unreliable brands and models is based on perception, not hard numbers
2) In terms of probability of failure during typical vehicle lifespan, the difference between "reliable" and "unreliable" isn't very big.

This approach has an insane level of survivor bias... If an analysis is made out of a subset of population that made it to 100k, it is baisaing the analysis since it excludes the very worst cases. i.e. vehicles that do not make it to 100k. How many of each vehicle failed so miserably that they didn't even make it to 100k before being scraped? I am sure that number is much higher for Wranglers compared to Rav4.

 

[katekebo]

This approach has an insane level of survivor bias... If an analysis is made out of a subset of population that made it to 100k, it is baisaing the analysis since it excludes the very worst cases. i.e. vehicles that do not make it to 100k. How many of each vehicle failed so miserably that they didn't even make it to 100k before being scraped? I am sure that number is much higher for Wranglers compared to Rav4.

View attachment 50405

I'm going to get a bit off-topic here and strand into Reliability Engineering (RE) field. Statistical (empirical) machine reliability (including automobiles) is a well researched field. Unlike failures induced by external factors (of which one example is the one you show in the illustration), mechanical failures do not follow normal (Gaussian) distribution. Instead, mechanic failure probability is best described by Weibull distribution. The resulting expected reliability can be represented using Duane growth curve (also known as Duane survivability curve). The math of Weibull distribution and Duane growth curve accounts for what Reliability Engineers call "infant mortality", i.e. early failures you are referring to (vehicles that don't make it to 100k miles).

dashboard-light.com methodology incorporates statistical reliability engineering in their calculations, and the percentages calculated account for "infant mortality" considerations. I can't find the original master thesis of these guys right now, but I read it several years ago because I am generally interested in RE and have some training and experience in this area. I have participated in and lead multiple project in which we made extensive use of statistical RE to predict and speed up reliability growth. dashboard-light.com methodology is very sound from RE standpoint, much better than the simplistic approaches used by JDPower and Consumer Reports (albeit CR is better than JDPower methodology).

Finally, dashboard-light.com uses data provided by mechanics and car dealers, instead of consumers / car owners. One of the biggest issues with both JDPower and CR is that the information they collect from vehicles owners is heavily biased. Most people who buy Toyotas (or Hondas or Subarus) believe that their cars are reliable (and want them to be reliable) so they tend to minimize or under-report issues. On the other hand, people who believe that they bought a vehicle that is generally considered unreliable tend to be more critical of their vehicles and are not shy about reporting issues. This is very evident when you compare reliability reports from TÜV/ADAC against CR. TÜV/ADAC reports are based on information provided by mechanics who perform annual technical inspections (a prerequisite for license plate renewal in Germany), as well as roadside assistance mechanics. Interestingly, cars that are traditionally seen as unreliable in the US (for example Mercedes) tend to have the least issues, while Toyotas are about average. For a few years, the RAV4 was the vehicle that leaves the most drivers stranded, and the one that requires the highest number of roadside help due to mechanical failures (the percentage is if course adjusted to reflect the number of vehicle registered, and running out of gas and flat tires are excluded - the statistic is based exclusively on number of failures due to mechanical problems). Bottom line, US consumers firmly believe that Toyotas are reliable and, as people in marketing people's know very well, perceptions becomes reality, even if hard data say otherwise.

 

[what_have_they_done]

New LC is in same genre of efficiency econoboxes filled with software and batteries, so probably same rate of reliability as prius/highlander applies for drivetrain parts. I wouldn’t get into this LC and expect same reliability as 80-200, maybe in some parts of the car it is more reliable than highlander but not in drivetrain. And it looks like unless component fully fails toyota techs are going to just ignore it or do bare minimum. Ride experience is not covered by warranty lol.